Weather and climate change

Headline:

Turning drier for most overnight, with some patchy fog developing.

This Evening and Tonight:

Rain clearing the west this evening, with many areas dry by midnight. Showers in south also fading, although some continuing across northern England and southern Scotland. Staying mild under any cloud, with some mist and fog developing across the south.

Friday:

Any mist and fog clearing to leave sunny spells and showers on Friday, these turning particularly heavy with a risk of thunder in Scotland. Feeling warm in the sunshine.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Sunny spells and heavy, thundery showers continue on Saturday, particularly in the south. A little drier with fewer showers on Sunday and Monday. Feeling warm in any sunshine.

Updated: 17:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 16 May 2024

There is a lot of uncertainty in this period, even at the start when the UK will be in-between low pressure over the near continent trying to keep things unsettled and potentially thundery; high pressure to the west or southwest which would settle things down; and finally low pressure to the north or northwest which may being a more climatological split in conditions between the south and north. Overall though, one way or another, it looks like remaining fairly unsettled across much of the UK, with further rain, showers or even thunderstorms in places, though there will be some sunshine between times, the best of this possibly in southwestern parts. Both rainfall amounts and temperatures are likely to be a little above average, but some large spatial differences are likely.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 16 May 2024

There is nothing to suggest that conditions will be massively different to climatology at the end of the current month and though the first half of June. That said, both temperatures and rainfall are more-likely to be a little above average overall, with a fairly mixed bag seemingly most probable, with further rain or showers (possibly heavy/thundery at times) but also some spells of warm sunshine when it's not raining.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Thu 16 May 2024