Tropical peatlands and their conservation are important in the context of COVID-19 and potential future (zoonotic) disease pandemics

Public health and potential combined impacts from haze pollution

Disadvantaged populations are expected to be disproportionately affected by pandemics, further exacerbating existing social and economic inequalities (Lee, Rogers & Braunack-Mayer, 2008; WHO, 2009). With the exception of Reunion, Brunei, Puerto Rico and Australia, which contain only small peatland areas, all tropical peatland nations listed by Page, Rieley & Banks (2011) are classified as low or middle income (OECD, 2020), with many also being considered relatively under-prepared to cope with disease pandemics (Oppenheim et al., 2019). Tropical peatland communities are often relatively remote and (agricultural) conditions marginal, with lower access to public health and other services, no or poor medical insurance, fewer formal employment opportunities and higher poverty rates than non-peatland areas (e.g. Kalimantan: Medrilzam et al., 2014; Thornton, 2017; Van Beukering et al., 2008; Wiseman et al., 2018; DRC: C. Ewango & G. Dargie, 2020, personal observation; Peru: E. Honorio, 2019, personal observation; Fig. 3). The rural populations of several tropical peatland nations have disproportionate numbers of people with underlying health conditions and/or malnutrition (Kandala et al., 2011; Nair, Wares & Sahu, 2010), and many do not have access to formal healthcare, or the running water, good sanitation and hygiene systems required to implement the recommended WASH approach to COVID-19 (WHO & UNICEF, 2020). For example in Central Kalimantan, less than 40% of people have access to improved sanitation (WHO, 2017) and the province tends to perform poorly in healthcare provision evaluations (Suparmi et al., 2018; Wiseman et al., 2018). Disseminating COVID-19 health guidance information will likely also be more difficult in rural tropical peatland areas with poor communications infrastructure, further reducing the probability that risk reduction behaviours will be followed. It is therefore possible that the health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic may be relatively severe and/or prolonged in tropical peatland nations.

While their remoteness and low population densities may reduce the potential for COVID-19 to reach and spread between some rural tropical peatland communities, evidence to support this supposition is limited, since many of these communities—like many others on resource frontiers—are deeply embedded in market relations (Li, 2014; Medrilzam et al., 2014) and local to international value chains bring them into regular contact with outsiders (Dove, 2011; Schreer, 2016). Even among those communities living relatively autonomously, there are still levels of contact with non-community actors, including NGOs, researchers, public agencies and commercial organisations. Indeed, media reports from the Americas and Africa indicate that COVID-19 has already spread into remote indigenous communities (Brito, 2020; Wallace, 2020). In DRC, this comes on top of existing Ebola and measles epidemics (Blomfield, 2020), and in Iquitos, Peru, on top of dengue fever and leptospirosis outbreaks (Collyns, 2020b). Once introduced, the possibility of COVID-19 cases going undetected and unreported, owing to a lack of testing, limited awareness plus an element of fatalism arising from the commonness of disease in such communities (e.g. Borneo: L. Chua, 2003–2020, personal observation), combined with the important role that communal activities and high levels of social interaction play in many peatland communities, raises the risk of infection spreading. The more limited public health resources in rural tropical peatland areas means that the health impacts arising should an outbreak occur are potentially more serious than in less remote and more affluent communities. Furthermore, development and medical assistance in tropical peatland areas may be temporarily halted due to financial and organisational challenges (e.g. mobile medical teams in Peruvian Amazon: Vine Trust, 2020). These considerations place an onus on businesses, governments, NGOs and researchers working with such communities to take measures to reduce the chances of introducing and spreading the disease between communities.

Given that elderly people are more vulnerable to COVID-19 (Zhou et al., 2020), one impact of outbreaks in tropical peatland areas may be a loss of traditional local knowledge regarding these ecosystems. Another important knock-on impact highlighted by the WHO is potential for disrupted responses to other major public health issues that may risk reversing gains made against these. This includes malaria and dengue fever, which are endemic in many tropical peatland areas and exhibit several symptoms similar to COVID-19 (PAHO, 2020; WHO, 2020d); and immunisations for diseases such as diphtheria, measles and polio (WHO, 2020a). In addition, co-infection of COVID-19 with other diseases and increased COVID-19 mortality rates in co-infected patients has been reported (Lansbury et al., 2020; Zhou et al., 2020), as has a case of co-infection of COVID-19 and Plasmodium vivax malaria (Sardar et al., 2020; following hospitalisation and discharge, the patient in this case tested negative for both diseases). Important questions therefore exist regarding the potential for (increased impacts from) COVID-19 co-infection in tropical peatland areas, especially for the most vulnerable members of these communities. Measures to tackle these pre-existing diseases must therefore continue to remain a priority in tropical peatland areas.

Tropical peatland degradation and drainage increase fire risk. In Indonesia, peatland fires and their associated haze (smoke pollution) now occur almost annually (Gaveau et al., 2014; Page & Hooijer, 2016; Fig. 4), leading to high carbon emissions, forest and biodiversity losses, and major public health impacts from inhalation of the toxic haze (see Harrison et al., 2020; Page & Hooijer, 2016; Uda, Hein & Atmoko, 2019 for reviews). The haze contains high small particulate concentrations and several toxic compounds, including CO₂, CO, CH₄, NH₃, HCN, NO_X, OCS and HCl (Stockwell et al., 2016). Haze exposure during the prenatal period has been linked to decreased adult height attainment (Tan-Soo & Pattanayak, 2019), and short-term exposure during the severe 2015 fires is estimated to have caused 100,300 or more premature mortalities in Equatorial Asia (Koplitz et al., 2016; see also Crippa et al., 2016). This is important in light of recent reports that increased air pollution may elevate COVID-19 case numbers, hospital admissions and mortality (Cole, Ozgen & Strobl, 2020; Conticini, Frediani & Caro, 2020; Ogen, 2020; Wu et al., 2020), and has led to concerns being raised by both regional think tanks (Gan et al., 2020) and relevant experts in media reports regarding peatland fires and COVID-19 (Jong, 2020b; Listiyorini, 2020; Varkkey, 2020), though under COVID-19 lockdown conditions such impacts may be at least partially mitigated by general shutdowns of anthropogenic activities (Kanniah et al., 2020). In particular, in a pre-print article, Cole, Ozgen & Strobl (2020) and Wu et al. (2020) report that an increase in PM2.5 (small particulate matter) of just 1 μg/m³ is associated with a 8–16.6% increase in COVID-19 death rate, whereas in Central Kalimantan, PM2.5 levels have been reported to exceed 1,500 μg/m³ during severe fire periods (Atwood et al., 2016), and average mean exposures between 2011 and 2015 have been estimated at 26 μg/m³, over double the recommended WHO exposure limit (Uda, Hein & Atmoko, 2019). Similar findings were reported in relation to the impacts of air pollution on fatalities from the earlier SARS epidemic in China (Cui et al., 2003), suggesting that high levels of air pollution may increase vulnerability of populations exposed to haze from peatland fires to future pandemics. Observations that SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be present on particulate matter (Setti et al., 2020), and suggestions that particulates, such as PM2.5, are able to penetrate deep inside the lungs and remain in the air for long periods of time (Frontera et al., 2020) lead to further concern that haze pollution from peat fires may increase COVID-19 transmission. Finally, some symptoms of haze exposure are also similar to those of COVID-19 (e.g. dry cough, weakness), which may lead to complications with regards to COVID-19 testing and case identification. While extensive tropical peatland fires are currently mainly limited to Indonesia (Dargie et al., 2019; Lilleskov et al., 2019), increasing pressure to develop African and South American peatlands could elevate their fire risks if preventative measures are not implemented (Roucoux et al., 2017), with consequent potential impacts on the susceptibility of their populations to future respiratory EID pandemics. Continuing and amplifying measures to avoid and control fires in tropical peatlands (Page & Hooijer, 2016; Dohong, Abdul Aziz & Dargusch, 2018; Wijedasa et al., 2018; Harrison et al., 2020) is therefore of heightened importance.

Economy and livelihoods

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated response measures are likely to have deep and long-lasting adverse global and local economic impacts, with the worst case scenario being that poverty alleviation achieved in recent decades might be reversed, earnings reduced and our ability to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goal of ending poverty by 2030 compromised (ASEAN, 2020; Lucas, 2020; Sumner, Hoy & Ortiz-Juarez, 2020; World Bank, 2020b). Although tropical peatland communities are less likely to face the types of direct interruptions to livelihood resulting from strict lockdowns, adverse economic impacts linked to the pandemic may nevertheless have important consequences for them. Indeed, low incomes in many tropical peatland households, and weak social and food security safety nets in many tropical peatland countries (FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO, 2019), may make them particularly vulnerable. Anticipating the nature and the severity of these effects is complicated by the diversity of peatland communities and their livelihood heterogeneity (Jelsma et al., 2017). In Indonesia, for example economic activities include self-employment in commodity tree crop, short-term vegetable crop and livestock (especially chicken) production, swiftlet nest farming, hunting, fishing, gathering non-timber forest products, logging, artisanal mining, employment in construction and other industries, trading, remittances from family members employed elsewhere, and employment by government services and NGOs (Schreer, 2016; Thornton, 2017). The intensity of direct economic impacts arising from the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be linked to the way communities are integrated into wider trade and resource allocation networks. Here we consider some of these potential impacts.

The anticipated global recession is expected to have a generally negative impact on agricultural prices, with prevalent low incomes in peatland areas likely to amplify the impact of any price falls. Indeed, the UN and IUCN have flagged the expected negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the livelihoods of remote indigenous groups and called for special measures to restore and support traditional indigenous economies (IUCN, 2020; UN/DESA, 2020; UN/EMRIP, 2020). Tropical peatland communities are commonly not food self-sufficient and tend to be close to poverty at the best of times (Wildayana & Armanto, 2018). Global food shortages due to COVID-19 may have implications for the price of imported food, increasing pressure on these communities and potentially forcing some into poverty (as feared more generally by key international institutions: Sánchez-Páramo, 2020; World Food Programme, 2020). Small-scale settler communities cultivating short-lifecycle food crops and staples serving local markets are likely to be less adversely affected, because demand for their output is relatively inelastic and close market proximity means they are better placed to respond to changes in local demand by rapidly switching production. To date, prices of such crops are indeed remaining relatively stable (Lucas, 2020), although some increases are anticipated (Amanta & Aprilianti, 2020). For such producers, the greater problem may be changes in the price of agricultural inputs (e.g. fertilisers) and other imported goods.

Producers of commodities such as palm oil, rubber and beef on tropical peatlands are likely to experience more severe adverse impacts due to falling prices resulting from changes in international demand. For example the value of palm oil fell by over 20% from December 2019 to April 2020 (Index Mundi, 2020), and declining palm oil export volumes and domestic consumption have already been noted in Indonesia (Sarkar, 2020), leading to reported concerns regarding lower demand and falling prices (Gan et al., 2020). Any sustained fall in palm oil price is likely to more severely impact peatland-based production, which is less productive than cultivation on mineral soil, and small-scale producers, for whom yields are typically lower and who will have less resources to sustain them through difficult periods (Euler et al., 2016; Sumarga et al., 2016). These problems are exacerbated by the long-term commitment and substantial investments that these crops require, which restrict the capacity of farmers to rapidly change to other crops, thus limiting their resilience. Prolonged low prices, combined with long-standing issues such as land titling, are thus likely to lead to increased hardship among these small-scale commodity producers, with previous commodity price falls being linked to increased poverty, mental health issues and suicide among small scale producers (Tyson, Varkkey & Choiruzzad, 2018). Conversely, decisions of better resourced, larger plantation companies regarding expansion or contraction of operations will be more heavily influenced by predictions of the longer-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than immediate price changes. Current thinking in the palm oil industry appears to be that, while the short-term impact may be significant, longer-term effects are uncertain, given the nature of the product and its market (Sarkar, 2020), reducing the likelihood of substantial longer-term reductions in oil palm expansion by large operators. These price changes may nevertheless mean that alternative economic and livelihood options may compete more favourably economically with palm oil in tropical peatland areas (cf. Wich et al., 2011), possibly encouraging their uptake. However, evidence of land holding in tropical peatlands strongly suggests that financial problems linked to poor revenues and limited capital may contribute to plot abandonment (Yusoff, Muharam & Khairunniza-Bejo, 2017).

It is likely that many employed and casual workers in tropical peatland cities will lose their immediate income sources owing to lockdowns and other disruptions, leading to migration of people from cities to home communities, with media reports suggesting this may already be happening in Indonesia (Listori, 2020), Malaysia (Radhi, 2020) and Peru (Collyns, 2020a; E. N. Honorio Coronado, 2020, personal observation). There is concern that this ‘returning home’ may bring sources of infection to vulnerable communities, leading to media reports of the strict closure of some indigenous territories (Sierra Praeli, 2020). This situation may impose a triple strain on tropical peatland communities by increasing the risk of infection via returning community members, imposing additional burdens on household resources and depriving households of external income sources. Furthermore, during previous periods of economic instability in Indonesia, such as following the 1998 financial crash, illegal land uses increased, including illegal logging (EIA-TELAPAK, 1999), as people sought alternative economic means. Economic disruptions are also expected in communities dependent upon eco-tourism (Evans et al., 2020; Hockings et al., 2020; Lindsey et al., 2020). There is thus a risk that the financial burden caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could increase unlawful exploitation of natural resources (timber, wild animals), as well as increasing other marginal livelihood practices (e.g. artisanal mining).

Food security

The UN World Food Programme has predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to over a quarter of a billion people suffering acute hunger by the end of 2020, owing to increased conflict, reduced aid and trade, price fluctuations and lost incomes (Anthem, 2020). Concerns have been raised that the pandemic is affecting all four pillars of food security (food availability, utilisation/nutrient intake, stability and particularly food access) and is leading to forced cut-backs in nutrient-rich non-staple foods towards starchy staples, with consequent long-term adverse health impacts (Laborde et al., 2020). We have already suggested that, given existing relatively high poverty levels and frequent lack of food self sufficiency, plus positions at the end of long supply chains for many external commodities, tropical peatland communities may be particularly vulnerable to food supply problems and price rises. Furthermore, while statutory and NGO food assistance programmes are operating and good transport links exist in some tropical peatland areas, these are designed to deal with relatively small numbers of clients and could be quickly overwhelmed if demand increases dramatically, whilst other areas have poor assistance infrastructure and poor, or often no, road access (e.g. Fig. 3). For indigenous communities, such issues may be exacerbated by a common lack of visibility in public policy (United Nations, 2009). Ensuring food security and the provision of food assistance to tropical peatland areas thus presents logistical, organisational and political challenges, and development of more localised food supply chains may therefore be favourable in post-pandemic responses (as recommended in a general context by Pearson et al., 2020).

As previously mentioned, tropical peatland community livelihood strategies are often based on a range of economic activities, whose relative importance varies temporally. For example rural communities in Borneo have for centuries been fairly entrepreneurial and responsive to changing global/regional trade patterns (Arenz et al., 2017; Dove, 2011). From their perspective, the COVID-19 pandemic may therefore not be viewed exceptionally, but rather as yet another development to which they must respond. Consequently, any potential loss of economic opportunities and reduced external demand for, or price of, locally produced commodities in such communities may lead to individuals reconsidering their livelihood strategies, resulting in changes in natural resource exploitation. For example any price declines in swiftlet nests produced in Indonesian peatland areas following potential economic slowdowns in China (the main market), may lead swiftlet keepers to search for alternative incomes from harvesting forest resources. While such shifts may not necessarily result in increased pressure on natural resources, concern nevertheless appears warranted, as recent reviews suggest that increased overall local environmental resource pressures may be expected under conditions of rural economic hardship (Robinson, 2016) and that, where poverty exists, households are more likely to pursue economic activities that improve their family’s short-term livelihoods, regardless of environmental impacts (South-east Asia: Douglas, 2006; Peru: Schulz et al., 2019b). From a positive perspective, any such changes may present an opportunity to work productively with affected communities to innovate and find more sustainable, locally rooted ways of responding to their needs.

Nevertheless, research suggests that experience of adverse shocks leads to increased risk aversion (Gloede, Menkhoff & Waibel, 2015) and that communities may be less willing to engage in alternative ‘sustainable’ livelihood activities if these are perceived to carry increased risks (Rodriguez et al., 2009). Perceived threats to health, income and food security related to COVID-19 may therefore reduce uptake or outcomes of revitalisation and community development activities in tropical peatland areas. Indeed, work in Indonesia has demonstrated that ecosystem restoration activities are unlikely to be adopted unless accompanied by assurances concerning food and income security (Carmenta & Vira, 2018).

The post-(peak) pandemic pressures governments face to ‘rescue the economy,’ may lead governments and companies in tropical peatland areas to reduce (or at least withhold attempting to improve) social and environmental standards (e.g. media reports: Carrington, 2020; Hurowitz, 2020), in an effort to reduce commodity prices and thus increase sales to rescue or expand industries such as palm oil. While evidence is currently limited, some media reports indicate that the pandemic may be employed to chip away at existing environmental measures, such as the EU’s palm oil ban (Kobo, 2020). Such trends could be exacerbated if economic restrictions and priority shifts lead to reduced enforcement of environmental and social regulations concerning extractive industries, or reduced emphasis on conservation and restoration, in tropical peatland areas.

Land conflicts

Land conflicts are one of the most important and complicated problems in land-use management in many countries with large peatland areas (Colchester, 2010; Colchester et al., 2007; Nesadurai, 2013; Scullion et al., 2014). In Peru, 24% of the estimated peatlands of the Pastaza-Marañon overlap with oil-extraction or exploration concessions, national reserves and territories of indigenous communities (Roucoux et al., 2017). In Indonesia, 807,178 ha are in land tenure conflict, with 73% of this contested land in the plantation sector (KPA, 2019). Increasing economic pressures and food insecurity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may potentially aggravate this situation, with any increases in land tenure conflict likely to lead to increased peat fire incidence, given previously reported links (Medrilzam et al., 2014; Suyanto, 2007), and potentially therefore to further disenfranchisement and displacement of the poorest households and communities. This, in turn, may trigger further habitat encroachment and increased human-wildlife contact, whilst both food insecurity and haze pollution in degraded tropical peatland areas may increase COVID-19 impacts and susceptibility, as we have previously outlined. A glimpse of the complex and uneven effects that can result from such large-scale disruptions is found in Schreer’s (2016) ethnography of a Central Kalimantan village’s experiences and aspirations in the early- to mid-2010s. Here, the end of the logging boom—precipitated by rapid governmental decentralisation—in the mid-2000s had highly variable effects in her fieldsite, with migrants and non-migrants reacting differently, and other industries and initiatives bringing in new opportunities, risks and land conflicts, as well as widespread disillusionment and resentment at various external parties (Schreer, 2016).

The return migration of casual and temporary workers from cities in to rural tropical peatland communities and the continued presence of migrant labour (working in industries disrupted by COVID-19), as noted above, constitutes a further factor that may exacerbate pressure on land resources and thus increase conflicts, as well as acting as a direct vector for disease transmission. Supporting local communities in and around tropical peatland areas to resolve land tenure conflicts and promote inclusive, sustainable community-led management will likely prove important in mitigating these risks surrounding land conflict issues.

Unequal community and gender impacts

Importantly, any negative economic, social and health impacts for communities will not occur in a vacuum, and the social and ecological impacts of COVID-19 will affect different communities and community members unequally. Regional inequalities, and differences in access to health facilities between rural and urban areas, are likely to impact (efforts to curb) COVID-19 impacts. For example, in Indonesia, COVID-19 testing rates in Java have only surpassed WHO minimum recommendations in the capital, Jakarta (WHO, 2020b), and other provinces with large peatland areas generally lag behind in terms of health facility availability and access (MoH RoI, 2019). Furthermore, there is evidence that legal and policy frameworks support development patterns that marginalise peatland communities, resulting in the neglect of their interests by policy makers (McCarthy & Robinson, 2016). The COVID-19 crisis may exacerbate these trends, contributing to increased levels of economic (Payne & Bradley, 2020) and intersectional inequality (Bowleg, 2020). It is being increasingly recognised that tropical peatland communities are not homogenous in relation to economic status, ethnicity, access to facilities, etc. (Thornton, 2017) and the interaction of these factors means that the impact of COVID-19 is therefore highly unlikely to affect all members of tropical peatland communities equally, with impacts likely varying between households.

In addition, studies have highlighted how economic, food and health crises often put women in a more vulnerable position compared to men, despite shrinking options available for both genders (Pitkin & Bedoya, 1997; Pollock & Lin Aung, 2010). For example previous studies on other diseases such as tuberculosis have demonstrated context-specific gender-related differences in the barriers to access diagnostic and treatment services, especially in developing countries (Krishnan et al., 2014), while the greater role of women as primary care givers may increase their probability of infection (Davies & Bennet, 2016; Wenham, Smith & Morgan, 2020). In line with this, international organisations have already highlighted the key role that women play in food provision in indigenous rural communities and the likely heightening of this and other burdens on women, including the loss of childcare and other support services, plus surges in domestic violence, during the COVID-19 pandemic (FAO, 2020; United Nations, 2020; UN/DESA, 2020). For example the closure of schools is likely to disproportionately increase the childcare burden on mothers and older daughters within families (De Paz et al., 2020). Recognising and accounting for such gender differences will be important for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 in tropical peatland areas. Related to this, care should also be taken in pursuing novel economic developments, such as the expansion of independent oil palm smallholdings, which may risk exacerbating or even producing new gender inequalities (Elmhirst et al., 2017; Julia & White, 2012) that may in turn compound gender inequalities relating to COVID-19.

Research, training and education

The COVID-19 pandemic is significantly impacting field research globally, with travel restrictions and social distancing, plus (potential) reductions in research funding, leading to the adjustment, postponement or cancellation of many ongoing and planned field activities (Corlett et al., 2020; Evans et al., 2020; Lindsey et al., 2020). Among other impacts, research disruptions could potentially delay or prevent key output production (with possible knock-on effects on policy development), cause data gaps (particularly for long-term ecological data collection) and equipment supply issues. Social research, especially that involving bringing people together physically, will be particularly impacted (Corlett et al., 2020). For example, at the time of writing, the Indonesian Ministry of Research and Technology has prohibited new foreign researchers from entering and conducting research activities until the pandemic has ended (RISTEK-BRIN, 2020). In DRC, the UKRI-funded CongoPeat project is continuing to operate virtually but field activities and face-to-face initiatives and meetings have been paused, with field researchers required to depart suddenly and leave collected samples behind, thus delaying or potentially even risking completion of their analysis (C. E. N. Ewango, G. Dargie & D. Kopansky, 2020, personal observation). Media reports indicate that some indigenous communities have effectively closed off to visitors to protect themselves from the potentially devastating impacts of COVID-19 on their communities (Peruvian Amazon, including the peatland region of Loreto: Sierra Praeli, 2020; Papua: Milko, 2020). Similar observations have also been made for remote villages in Central and West Kalimantan, Sabah and Sarawak (L. Chua & M. A. Imron, 2020, personal observation), with such measures representing a traditional mechanism among rural Borneo communities for protecting themselves from the spiritual and other effects of dangerous events like deaths or disease outbreaks (Chua, 2012). Even after the COVID-19 pandemic (peak), such communities may retain their wariness, remaining less welcoming or even hostile to outside researchers, who have an ethical obligation to ensure that they do not inadvertently transmit the disease to these communities. Research on great apes and other primates is also at high risk of disruption, as measures are put in place to prevent reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, given the perceived vulnerability of these species (Damas et al., 2020; Gillespie et al., 2020; IUCN SSC WHSG & PSG SGA, 2020; Melin et al., 2020). This has led some to question whether all primate field research should be cancelled for 2020 (Reid, 2020), with others highlighting the potential negative impacts of such a move and the potential primate conservation and research opportunities that may arise from the pandemic (Lappan et al., 2020; Trivedy, 2020). Ultimately, the risks of any research in relation to the COVID-19 threat will need to be carefully balanced against the counter-risks of not conducting or restricting research in terms of addressing other important conservation and community wellbeing issues. From a positive perspective, some of these developments may facilitate the empowerment of local scientists and thus help strengthen in-country scientific research in tropical peatland areas.

Research and training meetings are being cancelled or postponed around the globe, including rescheduling of the International Peatland Congress from June 2020 to May 2021, which will negatively impact both networking opportunities for peat scientists and short-term income for the International Peatland Society. Disruptions to teaching, research and networking activities, and related publications, will potentially have reverberating impacts on the careers and (short-term) incomes of students and junior researchers, with possible overall negative impacts on future scientific expertise (Corlett et al., 2020). For example, Borneo Nature Foundation (BNF) and Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM) had been developing plans for BNF to support selected UGM students to conduct research dissertations on tropical peatlands in 2020. These have now been converted to desk-based projects, which cannot provide students with vital first-hand perspectives of the tropical peatland environment. More widely, impacts are likely to be especially severe and potentially irreversible for students and researchers already facing (economic) disadvantages, acting to further entrench existing biases and low representation of black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) groups in environmental organisations (Taylor, 2015), and women in tropical peatland research (Thornton et al., 2019). Parents, and particularly mothers, are also likely to be disproportionately affected (Staniscuaski et al., 2020). Some positive responses are, however, already evident in tropical peatland nations, with for example UGM instituting a series of online expert talks, BNF conducting live children’s education sessions through Facebook Live (Borneo Nature Foundation (BNF), 2020a) and some schools in remote areas of Kalimantan without internet using radio broadcasts to deliver teaching during the pandemic (Jakarta Post, 2020).

There is also the risk that research and development funds will be redirected towards COVID-19-related projects, increasing the difficulty of accessing funding for other research and conservation priorities (Evans et al., 2020). Funding shortfalls for tropical peatland research may lead to local research and other staff temporarily losing income tied to specific projects, or even redundancies of permanent staff. While some international NGOs may be able to furlough some staff to receive government funding support, this is unlikely to be an option in most tropical peatland countries. In addition to negatively impacting local economies (tropical peatland research is often conducted in remote rural areas with limited economic opportunities), redundancies of permanent research staff would also represent a consequent loss in local research project capacity if staff move to work in other sectors, which may be difficult and require a long time to replace. On the plus side, prolonged international travel restrictions may help promote the role of local researchers in multi-national research projects, while also reducing the carbon footprint of research involving international flights. Whilst it may be possible to maintain communications and coordination of many ongoing projects using online communication tools, this may be limited by lack of or slow internet connections in more remote tropical peatland areas. Equipping remote communities with such communication infrastructure would help minimise this and other wider impacts resulting from reduced potential for outsider travel to these areas. While researchers may be able to help contribute some individual-based assistance (e.g. laptop provision, booster aerials), provided sufficient flexibility exists in research grant provisions, larger-scale upgrades in communications infrastructure would require in-country government support. Potential may also exist for international travel funds to be re-allocated to support online learning or other training for local students and researchers, helping to build local capacity in the long term, although in the shorter-term international travel to undertake studentships and receive training may be curtailed.

Conservation and restoration

In addition to potential funding impacts discussed in the previous section, field activity disruptions, delays and cancelations will likely detrimentally impact many tropical peatland conservation, restoration, community development and outreach projects (e.g. Indonesia: Gan et al., 2020). This is particularly so when activities are time sensitive (e.g. planting seedlings during periods of optimal peat water level), require continued maintenance (e.g. tending seedlings in nurseries that may otherwise die, requiring much time and funds to replace), or typically involve large teams or in-person gatherings. For example, BNF temporarily halted all of its in-person childrens’ education and other activities involving groups of people, including community development, sustainable livelihood and fire-fighting training (Borneo Nature Foundation (BNF), 2020b). Some organisations have initiated self-isolation protocols before and after field visits as a COVID-19 precaution (e.g. Frankfurt Zoological Society in Jambi, Sumatra: T. Lestarisa, 2020, personal communication), which although potentially effective in relation to reducing transmission risk, may place additional demands and stresses upon staff.

Halting dialogue with tropical peatland communities, who are frequently remote and have limited or no internet access, may lead to reduced uptake or failure of alternative livelihood development activities, if critical implementation periods are missed (e.g. a planting season), enthusiasm wanes, community members seek alternative opportunities and become tied to these, or if initiatives are incorrectly implemented and so fail because of reduced training provision, thus potentially decreasing local enthusiasm for such initiatives in future. Even activities that can be postponed may still suffer from negative impacts, if this means that calendar-based targets are not met, community engagement drops, or consequent additional damage occurs (e.g. dams to restore peatland hydrology are damaged owing to lack of project presence in the area). As noted in the previous section, equipping rural communities with improved communications infrastructure would help minimise such impacts.

As is the case more generally (Corlett et al., 2020; Evans et al., 2020; Hockings et al., 2020; Lindsey et al., 2020), TPSF encroachment, timber and wildlife harvesting is likely to increase if conservation agencies are less active or visible, or enforcement reduced, particularly if rural communities do increasingly fall back on exploiting natural resources owing to economic shock or food insecurity (see above). For example, media reports quoting conservation organisations have already indicated increased poaching in the Leuser Ecosystem, Sumatra, which includes TPSF areas (Hanafiah, 2020). Importantly, if work restrictions or funding shortfalls lead to reduced fire-fighting capabilities in degraded tropical peatland areas, this may result in increased fire incidence and severity, as highlighted by reputed researchers and institutions in media reports (Cannon, 2020; Taylor, 2020). Fire-fighting in South-east Asian peatlands is often undertaken by local community members or, in plantations, by company teams. In these situations, Moore et al. (2020) identify COVID-19 infection risks either from a home setting to fire teams and, given the difficulties in social distancing during fire-fighting, from the fire team back to the home and community. This could impact on the effectiveness of fire-fighting, as well as on individuals and their families. As noted above, any resulting increases in TPSF degradation, fragmentation, wildlife harvesting, or haze pollution will be expected to increase the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and/or future potential for zoonotic EID emergence in tropical peatland areas.

As a result of the above, plus the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission to susceptible wildlife species, there is a risk of significant negative impacts on tropical peatland biodiversity. This is likely to be particularly important for peatland specialists and already threatened species. This includes, for example the orangutan (Pongo spp.): the two species occurring on tropical peatland are Critically Endangered, with low and rapidly declining populations, have limited distribution on only one island each (Sumatra: P. abelii, Lesson; Borneo: P. pygmaeus, Linn.), have significant proportions of their populations in tropical peatland, are unable to persist in completely deforested landscapes and are at high risk from hunting owing to their slow reproductive rates (Utami-Atmoko et al., 2017). Orangutans and other non-human primates (Damas et al., 2020; Melin et al., 2020) are also potentially at risk of spill-over of the virus, including from asymptomatic human carriers, leading to recommendations for ape-based eco-tourism, field research and non-essential habitat conservation activities to be reduced, and impacting the activities of rescue, rehabilitation and release organisations (Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation (BOSF), 2020; Gillespie et al., 2020; IUCN SSC PSG SGA, 2020; IUCN SSC WHSG & PSG SGA, 2020; Reid, 2020). The crisis thus increases the urgency to fully implement the IUCN best practice guidelines on ape tourism and health monitoring/disease control (Gillespie et al., 2020; IUCN SSC WHSG & PSG SGA, 2020). While eco-tourism is not currently commonplace in tropical peatlands, disruptions to ape-based eco-tourism may potentially threaten the viability of ape/habitat conservation and livelihood initiatives in those tropical peatland areas relying heavily on this source of income, and result in shifts back towards more destructive economic activities (cf. Evans et al., 2020; Hockings et al., 2020).